Weekly Bushel Cast: 3/13

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, March 13, 2026

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you your managed bushels weekly update on Friday, March 13th. Friday the 13th, but we are actually updating our sales targets here as we move forward. We've had some really good moves, made some good sales, and now we want to put some targets out there for making some additional ones. So feel free to look through it. I'll obviously go through some targets here as I get into each individual crop. So starting with corn and looking at old crop, we did see the May contract finish the week at 467 and a quarter. But looking back at the two-year chart for May Corn, the market spent actually much of today's uh session testing an important level near 460, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the large slide from 526 to 420. So these retracements they tend to act as decision points for the market. If buyers continue to defend the area, it keeps up trend momentum intact and suggests that the market may want to work higher. So above the market, 473 is the next level to watch, representing the 50% retracement of that same big move. And if corn can push through there, we're looking at upside targets near 485 and also 496. So from a strategy standpoint, this is the exactly kind of move we should be looking for for old crop. If you have been making cash sales into strength, just remember you can always stay involved in the market on paper. Call options allow you to re-own those bushels after the sale while still keeping the physical grain risk off the table. So again, keep rewarding the rally here with some sales and re-own. And if you're looking for some re-ownership, we were looking at May 460 calls today. They were about 13 cents. They expired the 24th of April. Otherwise, you could go out further. July$5 calls, we're trading about 15 cents today. That's pretty cheap, getting you all the way through the 26th of June. Now onto the new crop side. December futures did finish the week at 491 and a half, but Sunday night's trade actually did push December corn to 498 and a half, filling a gap that goes all the way back to December of 2023. So markets tend to remember gaps like that. And based on our recommendations last week or in previous weeks, some of you may have had some orders hit on the on the market on that Sunday night high near that level. And that's exactly how these moves are meant to be handled. Have some working orders in ahead of time so that the market can reward you when that volatility shows up. But to finish the week, we did see the contract trade most of the session back to a low of 484 today. Just again reminds us that rallies can't move up in a straight line. So if you've not taken advantage of this rally yet, I really encourage you to consider it. We're not calling a top here. In fact, we would love nothing more than a weather story to develop here as well and push corn north of 550 again. But again, hope isn't a marketing plan. And honestly, just a month ago, we were wondering if we could somehow see$5 by July. And at that time, the conversation was about defending$460. And now here we are in March and we're trading just under$5. Obviously helped a lot a lot in part just due to some geopolitical volatility. Um, whether you like it or not, that's the reason and the opportunities here. So if we do see the market pull back for support, we are looking at some clear technical levels underneath us at$478,$471, and$465. So if you want to make a sale, again, we do recommend being 20 to 25% sold and look at getting to 30% sold near$5. So again, here is your reminder to make sure you have some working orders in this weekend in case we see a wild Sunday night again. And if you're waiting on sales or just want to protect some additional bushels, don't be afraid to put some hedges on. Some short-dated 470 puts could be bought today for 15 cents. Those expire the 26th of June. So now going into soybeans, May Old Crop finished the week at 1225 and a quarter. And lately, the soybean market has really been trading less like a grain and more like a cousin to crude oil. When energy moves, funds tend to drag soybeans along for the ride, and that relationship was pretty clear this week. Maybeans pushed to 1238 and three quarters this week, trading back to levels we haven't seen since December of 2023. And above the market, there are still a couple of targets left that we would call the old high hit parade for the robots. They're at about 1248 and three quarters and 1256. Those are the last two obvious chart levels if momentum continues higher here. So to put the move in perspective, the rally from 1051 to 1238 represents a gain of roughly$1.87 or about an 18% move higher. And that's a sizable rally in a fairly short period of time. But again, markets rarely move that far without eventually testing the downside. So if we were to see a hard flush, a 50% retracement of that rally would bring beans back to$11.45. We're not predicting that, just showing you that that's where the math sits. So for now, the key point is simple. The market has already given us a significant rally. Moves like this are exactly when rewarding strength with sales works for you. So again, continue to reward the strength here in the market with some sales. If you want to push into some resistance levels, go ahead. But of course, you can always re own too. May 1250 calls are trading about 23 cents today. They expire the 24th of April. And for new crop, November futures finished the week at 11.61 and a half. And we've used this rally. We've we've gone to 20 to 25% sold. Some of you may be even doing more if you've been following some of our recommendations. And yes, those bushels can absolutely be reowned with relatively inexpensive calls if you want to stay involved on paper. In our opinion, we're more concerned about making sure our on-price bushels don't give back to too much of this rally if the market does decide to flush unexpectedly. Still, it's worth remembering where we came from here. Just 15 months ago, soybeans were trading at 984. That wasn't long ago. And after a move like the one we've seen, the last thing we want to be saying is woulda, shoulda, coulda if the market gives back a big chunk of the gains we've seen. So from a chart perspective, 1130 looks like a reasonable level to defend right now, in our opinion. Or at the very least,$11 puts are sitting underneath the market, acting as a floor if it gets sloppy. So the goal here isn't perfection. The goal is to make sure profitable opportunities actually make it into the farm balance sheet. So again, if you're making sales, we do recommend being 20 to 25% sold. And we did update our targets as well this week. We're looking for a sales zone somewhere near that$11.90 area, is where we're looking to maybe go to 30% sold. And if you're waiting, again, stay hedged. Like I mentioned, those July 1130 puts, they're 23 cents. July shortdated$11 puts are about$12. On to Springwheat, the May Springweed contract did finish the week at$6.45 and a half. May Springweed had a strong move this week, actually trading to a high of$669 and three quarters before the market backed off and retraced more than 30 cents to finish the week. And that may feel like a sharp pullback, but markets can't go up in a straight line. And what we're seeing right now is exact is actually pretty constructive. This market has finally started to stair step higher, pushing up, pulling back, and then trying to build support before the next move. And that's exactly what a healthy trend looks like as long as support holds. So looking at the move from the December low of 571 to this week's high, the market's currently holding near that 38.2% retracement of that rally. So if buyers continue to defend this area, it keeps the recent momentum intact and suggests that the market may want to work higher. So for those who still have some old crop bushels needing to be used, move moved, use the movement. If you want to set targets, consider working orders near this week's highs. Volatility has a way of showing up on overnights and having orders in place ahead of time allows the allows the market to reward you when those spikes occur. Now the September contract actually finished the week at 675 and a quarter. And who would have thought we'd be looking at over$6 cash wheat prices for harvest? Earlier this week, the September contract actually traded to a high of$693 and December pushed to a high of$699. So those are significant levels that moves like that simply cannot be ignored. And because of that, we're going to start targeting those highs for additional sales. So if the market gives us another opportunity to test those areas, we're going to reward it. So harvest prices north of$6 are something many producers would have gladly taken not very long ago. So when markets are offering us the opportunity, the goal here is to make sure we're at least moving some bushels here to get priced. Now on to canola. Like soybeans, canola has been trading almost in tandem with crude oil. And when energy moves, oil seeds tend to follow, and canola has been no exception. And the funds tend to treat these markets as part of the broader energy and biofuel complex, which is why we often see these markets move together. At the same time, widening canola crush margins have also contributed to the strength. Strong margins suggest canola still remains relatively cheap compared to the value of the products being produced from it, even after the recent rally. Another factor entering the conversation is fertilizer prices. The war has pushed fertilizer markets higher again, which may influence planting decisions this spring. And canola is relatively input sensitive as a crop. So a rising fertilizer costs could encourage some producers to shift intended acres towards some crops requiring fewer inputs. So for producers, the message remains similar to soybeans. Use the strength when it appears. Oil seed rallies tied to outside markets can develop quickly, but they can also reverse just as quickly if energy loses momentum. So again, we would be looking at making some initial sales for 2026 if you have not. But obviously, this week we've been kind of bombarded by outside markets again. We've seen energy, geopolitics, and fun money pushing volatility across commodities. But the important takeaway here is that several markets offered pricing opportunities. Corn tested some key levels, soybean extended their rally, and wheat showed new life, and oil seeds followed strength and energy. So weeks like this remind us that volatility does create opportunity. And again, the goal is simple here have targets in place and reward rallies when the market offers them. So if you have questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, we hope you have a great weekend and we'll see what markets bring Sunday night. We'll talk to you next week.