Weekly Bushel Cast: 3/20

Managed Bushel Weekly Update: Friday, March 20, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Friday, March 20th, and this is Sam with this week's Manage Bushels Update. May 2026 futures closed at 465 and a half. Don't be afraid to make sales. We wouldn't be afraid to be 70 to 80% sold, but you each have your own plan. Remember, we use the early March rally to reward the market. This is another chance to get sales on the books. If you're still holding bushels, just look at the move. We rallied from 426 in January to 476 on March 9th, the first night of the war, then broke hard to 445 and a half, a 62% retracement. Not normal, but it happened. Now today we're back in the 460s, over 40 cents off the January low. That's worth rewarding if you need to make sales. If you're nervous about selling into a 40 plus cent rally, don't just sell and walk away, sell the cash and buy a call for the next 100 days to stay in the game. Some strategy ideas need to make a sale. We recommend being 70 to 80% sold. Already sold, don't be afraid to re-own. July$5 calls are about 18 cents, expiring June 26th. December 26th, futures closed at 490 and three quarter. Back on January 12th, new crop corn had fallen from 468 to 445, and we were staring down the possibility of 439, the August 2024 contract low. There was real concern in this market, fast forward to today, and we're sitting at 490 plus in December 26 corn. That's not fundamentals, that's a geopolitical gift. New crop corn is knocking on the door of$5 again. Is this third time the charm? We hope so, but hope isn't a marketing plan. If you are not at least 20 to 30% sold on 2026 production, pick up the phone and get it done. If you're looking to protect downside while staying in the game, there are some short-term opportunities to consider. The market is giving you a second shot at pricing levels that didn't look possible two months ago. Use it to build sales and define your risk. Want to make a sale? We recommend being 20 to 30% sold. Waiting for sales, a may short dated new crop put gets you coverage with relatively low premium, 470 for 6 cents, 475 for 8, or 480 for 10 cents, all expiring April 24th. If you want more time, mid-July short dated 465 put is about 14 cents, expiring June 26th. That is relatively cheap for key support protection. On the soybeans, May 2025, futures settled at 1161 and a quarter. We spiked to a 27 month high the night the war began, hitting 1233 and three quarter. Then within 24 hours, we gave back 55 cents, dropping it to 1177 and three quarter. Two sessions later, we got a gift ripping to 1230 and three-quarter. Fast forward to this past Monday, and we received a 70 cent limit down move. That's risk. That second pullback took us to 1145 and a quarter Tuesday night, rate at the 50% retracement of the rally. And now, just days later, this market is pushing 20 20 plus cents off of those early week lows. That's the environment we're trading. Fast, emotional, and headline driven. We don't know where this ends or when it ends, but I do know when this market shifts back to trading the core fundamentals, supply weather, and China. There's a good chance we're not sitting at these levels. Use this volatility to make good cash sales, and just as importantly, defend the revenue you've gained. If we've learned anything this week, it's that this market can give it and take away take it away fast. Need to make a sale, we recommend being 70 to 80% sold on old crop, already sold, re owned using call options. July 12, 40 calls are about 23 cents expiring April 24th. That keeps your upside open if the recent contract highs are tested. Now, new crop beans, we closed the day at 1141. Back on January 12th, new crop soybeans had fallen from 1120 in December to 1055 and a half. And yes, many were seriously questioning whether$10 futures would hold for 2026. Fast forward to today, and we're sitting above 1140 in November. The reality is the driver hasn't been a clean fundamental story. It's been the Hornet's Nest of the Iran conflict. And volatile, holy cow, yes. This week we watched November Test 1118 near the 50% pullback of that$1.20 rally and hold. That tells us there's still underlying support, but it also shows us quickly this market can swing. Just like corn, if we're not building sales into the strength, you're missing the opportunity. This is a market handing you pricing levels that didn't feel realistic a couple months ago. Take advantage of it and make sure you're protecting the revenue along the way. We recommend being 20 to 30% sold on new crop beans, waiting for sales at July short dated 11.20. Put is about 24 cents, expiring June 26th. That is relatively cheap protection at this week's low. Now on a spring wheat, May futures closed at 628. The market looks like it's starting to carve out a new floor. Early week pressure, mostly in sympathy with the broader grain sell-off, was quickly absorbed after testing the 20-day moving average near 620. Two months ago, who would have thought we'd be talking about support developing above$6? Even with the contract sitting roughly 30 30 cents off the early March highs, the tone hasn't really broken. Instead, it feels like the market is settling into a new range with buyers stepping in on dips and building a base rather than rolling over. From a strategy standpoint, this is still a market that should reward strength, continue to stay disciplined, and reward rallies with old crop sales while the market is offering profitable opportunities within its developing range. Need to make a sale, keep rewarding strength the sales. Already sold, examine buying futures, but know your risk. If that isn't comfortable for you, look at using Chicago wheat or corn options as a cross hedge. Now new crop spring wheat futures closed at 658. In late January, September Minneapolis spring wheat fell to a low of 601 and a half, and everyone in the trade was talking about$5 harvest prices. Technically, however, it was a double bottom off December lows and the market rallied. Fast forward two and a half months, and the contract hit a high of 693 in early March, a 90 plus cent rally. This week the contract tested support at the 20-day moving average of 653 before bouncing back above 660. In our opinion, this is a market building a floor and finding a new trading range, like corn and soybeans, a geopolitical and inflationary gift. If you haven't made sales yet for new crop, target recent highs of 680 in the September contract, followed by 690. If you prefer December, get orders working at$690 and$7. We recommend being 20 to 30% sold on new crop wheat. Now into canola, like the rest of the oil seed complex, canola took a hit early in the week with Monday's break tied to broader pressure across soybeans and veg oils. But the response since then has been telling. The market is starting to build confidence, holding above the$700 level. More importantly, it fits the bigger picture we're seeing across the grain and oil seed markets. New rangers appear to be developing. Rather than breaking down, markets are absorbing pressure and resetting at higher levels. As long as$7 continues to act as a floor, the tone remains constructive, and this looks more like a consolidation within a new range than the start of a broader move lower. Some strategy ideas we recommend making initial sales for 2026. Look at using the board to lock in profit on early sales. Ice Canola futures are a$20 20-ton contracts or about 44,000 pounds. Maintenance margin is about$500 per contract. Looking for less risk, use soybean oil options. These are 60,000 pound contracts. This week didn't break the market, it reshaped it. Across grains, we're seeing signs of new ranges developing with support holding at higher levels. Volatility is still present, but the train continues to buy brakes rather than abandoned positions. That keeps the broader tone constructive, but also reinforces the need to stay disciplined, reward strength, and manage risk inside these evolving ranges. That's from all of us at the Money Farm team. We hope everyone has a great weekend, and we will talk to you next week.