Weekly Bushel Cast: 3/27

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, March 27, 2026

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Happy Friday, everyone. This is Allison giving you your managed bushel's weekly update on Friday, March 27th. So starting out with corn, we did have May Corn Futures finish out the week at 462. Next week's focus for old crop is going to be that quarterly grain stocks report. And it matters. Yes, stocks are expected to come in higher than a year ago, but that's not the entire story here. The real focus is the drawdown from March or from December to March. And demand has been strong across exports and ethanol. And there's a growing argument that disappearance could be larger than the trade is currently penciling in. And that's what the market needs right now: proof of demand. So if we get a bigger than expected drawdown, it reinforces the idea that usage is quietly doing the heavy lifting, and that tightens the old crop balance sheet as we start looking into the next year. If we don't, then the market's left questioning whether demand has truly kept pace. So for making sales here, if you still have old crop, continue to targets just above the market. So for May Futures, we're looking at making those sales between 470 and 475. And if you're looking out to July, put some orders between 480 and$5. And again, make these working orders, put them in place. We've seen a lot more of these orders get filled here recently on the overnight sessions, not during the day. And if you want to stay long, as always, look at some call options. July$5 calls are about 15 cents. That's pretty cheap at a pretty firm line in the sand. And December corn futures finish the week at$4.90 and a quarter. Next week's perspective plantings report matters. The market's been pushing that, but really how much is it going to matter? The market will react, it always does, but this early, acres are still just intentions. Weather, price, and profitability will ultimately decide what gets planted. That said, it does set the tone for the balance sheet moving forward, and that perception matters. We get more acres, the market leans heavier, fewer acres, and we start to build a little cushion. But December corn does continue to test that$5 level even here to finish the week. We saw a high in the session of$497. And again, it continues to fail. It's really been a ceiling this market hasn't been able to convincingly break. So the question now is whether next week's reports could be the catalyst that finally pushes us through. If it does, the next level to watch is the contract high at$512.5, printed back in November of 2023. That was 28 months ago. So from a technical standpoint, the market is still holding together, but it's being tested. So we're watching the bold trend line that comes into play near 475. And as long as that holds, the trend does the trend higher remains intact. If it breaks, we do start to lean on support below at the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages. So 468, 466, and 462. So if you want to make a sale, again, we do recommend being 20 to 30% sold. We are targeting futures above$5 for additional sales. And again, use some targets here just below$5 to get caught up if you haven't. Again,$497,$4.99, something like that to get in place and again have it working for overnight sessions. And if you're waiting to make sales, we were looking at some short-dated options here. A July short-dated$4.80 put is about$16. They expired the 26th of June. Relatively cheap protection there as well. On the soybean side, we did see May futures close out the week at$11.59 and a quarter, much like corn, or even maybe even more so, old crop soybeans are a demand story. The balance sheet remains well supplied, which means the market needs proof that usage is strong enough to tighten things up. And right now, that proof is still a pretty big question mark. Exports we know are running behind, not a surprise, but it does still matter. And that's been the weak weak link here. Headlines though did start to creep back in this week with an upcoming meeting with China announced. Um, supportive, absolutely, but it's still over a month away, and that leaves the market trading anticipation, not actual demand. And domestically, crush has been the bright spot, helping offset some export weakness. But is it enough to really pull stocks lower? Well, honestly, not relative to last year, and that's the issue we're facing. Um, we also got today's EPA announcement that did little's really helped the sentiment, which does keep technical action key. And technically, old crop soybeans are holding this week's lowest despite the biofuel headlines here to finish the week. And that keeps the market in fight mode. Remember, the funds are long and the market is trying to rebuild, but it really hasn't fully regained control yet, keeping rallies pretty vulnerable. So this market still needs demand to show up, and until it does, supply keeps the upper hand. So next week's USA reports will be key to at least where we're gonna go in the near term. So if you need to make a sale here, you know, for old crop, we would target, you know, futures being above 1170 on May. And if you're using July, target anywhere above 1180. And if you've already sold, you certainly can use call options. You could look at July 1240 calls, they're about 22 cents, expired the 26th of June. Just keeps your upside open if the recent contract highs are tested. November November futures finish the week at 1144. November beans have clear upside targets, 1174, which was the March 9th high, followed by$12 and then$12.41. Will we get there? Well, honestly, we have no idea, but it is going to require more. Still, November beans have required have recovered better after the sharp move lower here two weeks ago compared to old crop, and that's important. This is where the story lies. This market is actively trying to buy acres, even though acres are expected to be higher than last year. There are still decisions to be made here. So with the corn soybean ratio still slightly favoring corn, it has helped keep underlying support in place for new crop beans. But let's not lose perspective here. We're currently sitting, you know, just just around that$11.50 mark, which is roughly$1.70 above the contract low of$9.82 back in 2024. So that move matters and it's an opportunity that shouldn't get it be ignored. So again, we do recommend being 20 to 30% sold here. If you need to get caught up, use working orders or targets near$11.70 to$11.75. And if you're not making a sale, use some short-dated puts. Um, a July short dated at$11.20 puts about 20 cents, expires the 26th of June. Relatively cheap protection at recent lows. We were touching just last week. On the spring wheat side, we did see May futures close the week at 648 and a quarter. Minneapolis wheat pushed to finish the week at highs we haven't seen since March 9th. And that's a notable shift in tone here for wheat. This market is finding support from Casey Wheat, which does continue to struggle coming out of dormancy. And that's the underlying support starting to spill over here across the wheat uh complex or the wheat exchanges. In fact, all three wheat exchanges have been able to track the move, which is impressive given that corn and soybeans have struggled to find consistent direction recently. A wheat-led rally, who knew they still existed, but if it holds, it really does matter. If we if wheat can lead a rally, it could be a strong one. So if you need to make some sales here for old crop, keep rewarding strength in the market. And today should be included in that. And if you've already sold, examine buying some futures back, but know your risk. And if you're not comfortable, we can always look at some cross-hedging strategies. Now for new crop, September futures for spring week, close the week at 677 and three-quarters. And new crop here is telling a similar story with the market pushing higher alongside old crop strength. Momentum has started to build, and for now, wheat is acting like the leader of the grain complex. Resistance came in at the March 9th highs near uh 693. And this has been a ceiling similar to the$5 level in Newcrop Corn. If the market can push through that level, it definitely opens the door for$7 futures, and that's an area worth rewarding. So from a marketing standpoint, it's an opportunity. Use the action here to make sales and get orders in place. And if you need to be making sales here, again, we are looking at being 20 to 30% sold and really look at using that December contract, especially when at that point you can start looking at some better basis opportunities as well. On the canola side, canola futures are starting to find some stability after volatility here for the month of March. The nearby technical trend remains potentially higher, with the May contract pushing to its highest levels in two weeks in early trade today. That said, positioning matters here. Speculators are already holding a sizable net long, which could lead to some profit taking. At the same time, outside markets still matter here. Soybean, biofuel policy, and crude oil movement remain key drivers, influencing vegetable oil demand and helping shape the broader tone of the canola market. So again, we do recommend making some initial sales if you're going to be having canola in the ground here for 2026. So again, this market is giving us a lot of chances here, not necessarily certainty. So take opportunities in front of you, stay disciplined, and don't wait for perfection when profit is already here. So again, if you have questions, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you again next week.