Weekly Bushel Cast: 4/10

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, April 10, 2026

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you this week's Manage Bushels update on Friday, April 10th. And before diving in, just a reminder: our recommendations are not one size fits all. Every operation is different, and your breakevens do matter. And those breakeven are only as good as your cash flows and your cost structure. So accuracy is critical. So depending on how today's prices or prices when they're moving do fit into your operation, you may be more or less sold than our targets, and that's okay. The goal is to make decisions that work for your farm first. So starting with corn, May Futures did close the week at 441. Technically, no real damage has been done, but the question is simple here. Do you have corn in the bin without a hedge? And if so, what is 25 cents of downside risk worth to you? We know the range from 420 and three quarters on the August low to 476 on the Iran or high. That's a 56 cent move, and we've already pulled back about 62% of it. So, in other words, most of the rally has been given Mac. So what's left? Well, about 20 cents. And right now you can buy a 440 put on June corn for six cents. That gives you 42 days of price protection. Um, and again, if 20 cents is your risk, why spend more than five to six cents to protect it? Now flip it. If you did sell bushels on the rally and don't have calls, this is a decent time to step in. Calls get cheaper on sell-offs, and this market has been a seesaw. So puts protect what you own, calls re own what you sold. So again, if you need to make a sale, make some sales, uh re-own them, or target 450 futures. If you're not making a sale, just make sure you're using puts. And on the call side, if you want to stay long, July 460 calls are about 13 cents. They expired the 26th of June. December futures finish the week at 472 and a quarter, and we're currently 30% sold with an average of about 481. So that's a position we're comfortable with given where the market sits today. Our average is currently 10 cents above the market. So from a technical standpoint, 472 where we finish the week is the halfway back retracement of the rally from 445 to 498 and a half. And this appears to be somewhat of a good level of support. The question now becomes does Iran and crude oil keep that low in place? So let's talk defense. Um, today you can buy a 465 June short dated put for 42 days of protection for a cost of 7 cents. And if you want more time, a 450 July short dated put, 77 days of protection, is 7 cents. And here's how we look at it we're trading around 472 with downside risk to roughly 445. So that's about 25-35 cents of risk. And in our opinion, it makes no sense to spend more than seven cents to protect that type of exposure. Big picture, this market has traded from 439 in August to 498.5. And right now we're essentially paused at the 50 cent retracement of that broader range. So what is this? A dip to buy or a pause before we melt, like Frosty the Snowman. And obviously, since we don't know, we'll keep doing what we can. And that's giving you the best risk management tools available. And for what it's worth, we are glad we rewarded the rally with sales. Now we wade through this muddy spring of risk together. So if you want to make a sale, we do recommend being 30% sold. We are targeting$5 for additional sales. Use strength to get caught up here. And if you're waiting, again, use those put options I mentioned. Um, they're a decent strategy here. On the soybean side, may soybean futures finish the week at$11.75 and three-quarters. And the biggest risk right now is simple. U.S. beans are expensive relative to South America, and their crop is big and we are well supplied. So that puts the burden back on demand and specifically on whether China shows up. Do they buy US beans as in as it um it with the upcoming meeting here in May? Maybe, but that's not a strategy, it's a headline risk. The market is trying to price in. So from a technical standpoint,$11.45, the 50% retracement of that$1.88 rally, has now been tested and held twice in the last four weeks. So that suggests it's an area managed money is willing to defend, at least for now. Is there drought risk here? Of course. There always is this time of year, but it's not a unique story, it's just part of the backdrop. What's tough is the environment. We're seeing 30 cent daily ranges, and that creates a market where it's incredibly easy to get whipsawed, whether you're bullish or bearish. So this isn't a market lacking opportunity, it's just a market demanding discipline. So if you want to make the sale, make it and re own or target 1190 futures. If you've already sold, again, look at some call options. July$12 calls are about 22 cents. Um, that keeps your upside open if those recent uh highs are tested. For November beans, um, futures finish the week at$11.57 and three-quarters. And by technical analysis, uh November soybean futures are forming a bullish pennant. So if we trade north of$11.62, the top of the wedge, um, you'll have chart traders stepping in to buy the breakout. And this is still a market in a bull trend, but$1146 is going to be the pivot we likely live or die on here for the rest of the month. So if you're inclined to re-own bushels, have at it. But on the defensive side, you can buy a June short date at$11.40 put 77 days for about 20 cents. And there's roughly a dollar of downside risk if we slide back toward 1050. So we can justify spending 20 cents to protect that. And we're currently 30% sold at an average of 1134. That's a solid position given the contract um has been pretty choppy between 1130 to 1150 here for about a month. So again, we do want to be about 30% sold. And if you need to get caught up, use some working targets or orders near that 1170 area, or even just, you know, get caught up today using the January contract. Not a bad option either. Um, and if you're waiting for sales, that was June shortdated 1140 puts about 20 cents. Now on to spring wheat, uh, May futures did finish the week at 611 and a half. Minneapolis wheat really took it in the chin here this week following that large carry-out number from the USDA. Prices fell to a one-month low and pushed through the 50 cent per retracement at 620. And that level did attract some buying interest, but not enough to hold for the week. So the next downside risk does sit near the 62% retracement of 608. That said, there is still risk in this market. Winter weed is coming out of dormancy in less than ideal condition, and spring weed acres are expected to see a sizable haircut. That's not a bearish backdrop. So the market may be reacting to the bigger carryout numbers, at least in the short term, but the underlying story here still has plenty of uncertainty. So if you're needing to make some old crop sales, keep rewarding strength with it and examine buying futures near support levels. Um, we've been actually looking at buying some here. So if that's not comfortable for you, you can always use Chicago wheat options or even corn options as a cross hedge. Now, the September new cop contract did finish the week at 643 and a half. And from a technical standpoint, the market is currently probing around that 50% retracement of that move, and that comes into play at 643. So we did we did close below it here for the week. And if that level does continue to fail next week, the next downside target will be around 630. On the upside, resistance does sit near 665 to 670. And again, not a bad area if you want to get caught up on sales. If we get back there, have some working orders in place. And again, we're currently about 30% sold at an average of 669, which puts us in a pretty solid uh position here compared to today's trade. So, again, just recommending to be 20 to 30 percent sold. Use those working orders to get caught up. On the canola side, the canola market actually has been trading in a historically large$20 range here for the past month. And as we wrap up the week, futures are testing some key support that matters. And if you haven't made any new crop sales, this is your nudge to get started. Last year, the rally in canola stretched into June before collapsing pretty quickly. This year the move started earlier. And don't get us wrong, we're not calling a top, but the risk is there. And with outside markets adding volatility to oil seed markets in general, this is not a market to sit idle. So again, start making some initial sales for 2026. And overall, the market here is handling a lot of uneasy answers. It's one definitely demanding some discipline, rewarding action, and just reminding us that risk matters more than guessing direction at this point. So, with all the volatility and outside stuff going on, just make sure you are looking at your hedges. And of course, if you have questions, feel free to reach out to us early next week. We'll definitely be around watching markets and we'll see what evolves over the weekend. Otherwise, have a good weekend. We'll talk to you again next week.