Weekly Bushel Cast: 4/17

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, April 17, 2026

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Good afternoon everyone. Today is Friday, April 17th, and this is Sam with this week's Managed Bushels update. May 26th futures for corn closed at 448 and three quarter in our watch zone. Despite a heavy headline heavy geopolitical Friday, corn held together rather impressively, especially with crude sharply lower. That's a tell. This market is starting to trade away from outside noise, and more importantly, support continues to hold. For old crop, that matters. May corn heading into delivery on April 30th is holding that 440 level while July continues to defend 450. Those are not random levels, they've been tested, and so far buyers are showing up. From a technical standpoint, we've worked into some oversold conditions recently. So this pause isn't surprising, but the key is how the market is pausing and not breaking. That keeps the door open. In fact, if support continues to hold in this zone, this may be an opportunity to look at re-ownership on previously sold bushels. You're not chasing strength, you're buying against defined risk with a market that's proving it wants to stay supported. Some strategy ideas would need to make a sale, make the sale and re-own or target 460 plus futures already sold. Stay long using July 460 calls that are about 14 cents, which expire uh late June, June 26th. December 26th futures closed in our watch zone at 477. Corn has finally made a stand near 471 this week, and it's not by accident. That level lines up with the 50% retracement of the January through March rally, roughly a 53.5 cent move from 445 to 498.5. In a market that's been searching for direction, that's the kind of level that matters. And for now, it's doing its job. The corn market has proven demand is real. Usage across the board has been better than expected. That's corn's foundation. That's why pullbacks haven't turned more aggressive, but holding support and going higher are two different things. If this market is going to reignite, it needs a spark. And that spark doesn't come from charts, it comes from a new demand or a weather story. Demand has already carried a lot of the weight, so from here, the market is going to lean on weather. And right now, that's still largely unknown. Early season conditions look favorable in spots, but we're a long way from knowing final production. Demand has built the floor, and weather will decide if we have a ceiling or a breakout. Until one of those shifts, meaningfully, this market can continue to grind, hold, and frustrate both sides. But if weather turns or demand finds another gear, that stand at 471 may end up being more than just a pause. Strategy ideas want to make a sale, we recommend being at least 30% sold. We are targeting$5 plus futures for additional sales. Use strength to get caught up on sales. Waiting for sales, a 470 July short day to put, about 70 days of protection costs around 13 cents. Moving to soybeans, May 25 futures closed at 1167 and a quarter in our watch zone. Old crop soybeans continue to do what they've done for weeks, chop sideways. We're stuck in a roughly 30 to 35 cent range, and the market just can't seem to break free in either direction. Technically, the lines are clearly defined and the market is respecting them. For May futures, resistance sits near 1180 with support holding around 1145. July is trading its own range between 1160 and 1190. Those levels have been tested multiple times and neither side has been able to take control. On one hand, that speaks to underlying support. The market isn't breaking despite a fundamentally heavy backdrop, but on the other hand, it's also not finding the fuel to extend higher, especially with the trade still trying to sort out demand strength versus comfortable supply. That keeps this market squarely range bound until something shifts, whether demand or outside markets, the strategy doesn't change. Stay disciplined, respect the range, and avoid chasing a breakout that hasn't proven itself. Strategy ideas need to make a sale, make the sale and re own or target$11.90 plus. Already sold, re own using call options. July$12 calls are about 20 cents. Expiring June 26th. New crop November futures closed in our caution zone at$11.56 and a half. Soybeans at$11.50 don't add up on paper, not with a record South American crop, fast US planting and a 350 million bushel carryout. Yet here we are trading near the top end of the last two years. That disconnect is exactly why selling rallies purely on fundamentals has been painful. The market isn't trading what should be, it's trading what is. So why are we here? Demand has been better than expected, especially through crush and meal. And more importantly, the market is not willing to price certainty into a crop that isn't made yet. This is the transition into a weather market, and that alone can keep a bid under prices longer than the balance sheet suggests. Strategy wise, this is a gift. We are 30% sold and are starting to analyze adding hedges going into planting and the growing season. Because if something shifts, this market likely doesn't just grind lower, it reprices. At the end of the day, a hedge is a cost of doing business. We don't have it crystal ball, and as producers, we are naturally long. The goal isn't to predict, it's to protect revenue and manage risk as cheaply and efficiently as possible. Strategy ideas want to make a sale, we recommend being at least 20 to 30% sold. If you need to get caught up, use working orders targets near 1170. Waiting for sales, a June short dated 1140 put, which is uh 35 days to expiration, is around 11 cents, and a July 1140 put, about 70 days is 20 cents. Now into spring wheat, we also closed in our caution zone for May 26 futures at 653 and a quarter. Old crop springwheat quietly put together an impressive week with solid gains and they closed not far from recent highs, just 10 to 15 cents off. That's a strong showing, especially when the narrative hasn't changed much. The wires continue to lean on large global production and apple supplies, yet the market isn't acting like it cares. That's a tell. Weather is starting to creep into the conversation, and with spring wheat, it doesn't take much. As we move into a more active planting window over the next couple of weeks, that weather premium can build, but it also can disappear just as quickly. That's the nature of a weather market. With that in mind, this is a move to use, not chase. If you've got old crop bushels that need to move in the near term, this strength is giving you that opportunity. Need to make a sale, keep rewarding strength for the sales already sold, examine buying futures near support levels. If that isn't comfortable for you, look at using Chicago wheat or corn options as a crosshedge. New crop wheat futures closed at 685.5 in our watch zone. New crop spring wheat is starting to press into decision territory. Can September breach 690? It's knocking on the door. This week's high came in at 687 before backing off. So the market knows exactly where resistance sits. If you haven't made sales, that 690 area is a logical place to get caught up. If we do push through and hold above it, we will examine additional sales near$7 futures. Don't be afraid to have orders working, especially if you know you'll have harvest delivery needs. In markets like this, you don't always get time to react once levels are hit. December, on the other hand, has already taken the lead, trading to a new high this week at$7.02. If you're comfortable using that contract, it's a solid place to start building coverage and getting some bushels protected. You need to make a sale, we recommend being at least 20 to 30% sold on new crop wheat. Canola, on the other hand, traded more in line with geopolitical headlines to finish the week and paid the price with sharp losses alongside other oil seed markets. This is exactly why we've been pushing to get initial sales on the books. Technically, the damage this week matters, momentum has shifted, and if that continues, futures could easily work back towards the$700 level. That puts local cash markets at risk of following the same path. This isn't the time to hesitate, act accordingly, and make sure you're not leaving too much exposed if this weakness continues. We recommend making initial sales for 2026. Across the board, support is holding where it needs to, but very few markets are breaking out with the catalyst. That puts us in a window where discipline matters more than prediction. Use strength where it's given, protect what's on priced, and stay flexible heading into the heart of weather season. The next move will come. The goal is to be positioned for it, not reacting to it. That's from all of us at the Money Farm team. We hope everyone has a great weekend. If you have any questions, please let us know or get in contact with us, and we will talk to you next week.