Weekly Bushel Cast: 4/24

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, April 24 2026

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you this week's Manage Bushels update on Friday, April 24th. So when we're talking old crop from here on, we're starting to talk about those July contracts. So for corn, we saw July close at 463 and a half. And like other front month contracts in corn, this one's been on the ride. The year started with a sharp break to 433 after that January 12th USD report. And at that time, we actually did see front month fall and test those August 25 lows near 420. So it could have been ugly, but demand stepped in and it held. And then we saw a good run. Middle East tensions helped push July to a one-year high of 487 on March 9th. Since then, the USD data and some fund selling knocked us back to 448, but we've already been able to claw about half of that last drop back. The issue though is that we're seeing Casey Wheat making 22 month highs and corn isn't following. That says a lot. This market is cautious and that's frustrating. Absolutely. But we're not done. There are still two to three months of cards here to be dealt. Demand has been strong, but large carry-out and big crops in South America do continue to cap rallies. So for now, stay patient and ready for the next move. So if you're needing to make some old crop sales, make sure you're doing it on strength and don't be afraid to reown either. You can stay long using a July 470 call, which is pretty cheap. About 14 cents gets you through the end of June. December Corn Futures finished the week at 484 and a quarter. The war high in this contract was printed at 498, and that was a 28-month high. Then the USD stepped in and gave us a low on April 10th of 469, a nearly two-month low. And as of today, the market has been able to again, like old crop claw, about half that move back, trading in the 480s. So it's not impressive, but it's not irrelevant either. And honestly, the bright spot so far for this market this year is that it's handing producers opportunities. We're well above the 440 area the contract started the year at, and that under I understand it's it's not great. We haven't rallied a whole lot since then, but at least we're not sub-440 futures. So now we shift into the heart of the risk window. Planting is moving fast, weather's starting to matter more every day, and war premium is actually fading. Still relevant, but not the driver anymore. Longer term, it definitely could have some impact on global production, but that's probably next year's problem. Right now, the market's questioning this year's risk, and it's one crisis at a time. So if you want to make sales, again, we do recommend being 30% sold. We're targeting$5 for adding additional sales, so use strength to get caught up. And if you're waiting to make some additional sales, don't be afraid to get some cheap puts in place at least through the end of June. Um, so we were looking at 470 short-dated puts. They cost about 10 cents. On the soybean side, July soybeans finished the week at 1178 and a half. And like the May contract here, July soybeans are second in range, roughly 30 cents between 1160 and 11.90. This week we finally tested the top end, pushing to 1201, but it couldn't hold. So now the contract's back to the middle of the range. So the question is simple: can we break out again and hold? Well, we just saw Casey July weed actually accomplished it. So it is possible, but soybeans have a few anchors holding them back. One, US soybeans are still overpriced versus South America. And number two, we do have upcoming meetings with China. And of course, that second piece matters. If China steps in here with some fresh buying, old crop gets a bid and the breakout has a chance. But until then, this is still a range-bound market waiting for a reason not to be. So again, if you need to make sales here, do it on some strength and then don't be also afraid to reown. We were looking at reunion some call options in July. July$12 calls are about 19.20 cents. The November soybean contract finished the week at$11.55 and three quarters. Can the Bulls break through$11.74? Well, so far, it's been a no. This week's failure does leave what looks like a double top on the charts, but don't ignore what just happened in Casey Wheat. Again, blowing through a triple top. So it can happen. The bigger question is what kind of buying it was. And in our opinion, it feels more like short covering than fresh buying bets stepping in, and that matters. Short covering rallies can run, but they don't always stick. So let's not forget January's low was 1055. That is about a dollar below where this market is currently trading. So there's still downside risk if the market loses momentum. So key levels to watch here if this pullback continues next week is going to be 1147, 1129, and 1115. Those levels will be worth protecting or defending here as we move into the growing season in case we do start to unravel. So again, we do recommend being about 30% sold. If you need to get caught up, have some working orders right near that top of the range or where resistance is around 11.70. And if you're waiting to make some sales, use some short dated options here. A July 11.40 is 19 cents, a July 11.30 is 15, or even disaster puts for this matter, 11.20s are 11 cents, and those expire the end of June. On the spring week side, July futures finished the week at 693 and a quarter. And this contract actually pushed to new highs for this week, 695. And no, it's not$7, but don't lose perspective here. Back in January, this contract was trading near$585. So that's a plus$1 rally. Um and that's not noise, that's opportunity. Now the question is whether the move has some staying power. Well, Spring Wheat's actually riding the coattails of KC Wheat right now. Demand has been solid, yes, but this move isn't driven by a fully independent um story here. The cuts, it cuts both ways. So it can extend if KC keeps leading, or can fade just as quickly if that leadership stalls. So don't overthink it. Use the move, reward the rally, and let some go. So again, make some sales if you need to. And if you want to re own some re ownership, um feel free to give us a call and we can certainly walk you through a few of different options. Now the September spring week contract finished the week at 709 and a half. Both this September and December futures are trading above$7. So now the real question is, is this market trying to buy acres? And that's been a question we've been handed this week, and it certainly could be. Um that's how the market works, trying to influence decisions ahead of time. So holding above$7 does start to get some attention. But let's also be honest about the pushback we're getting. Um, we've been hearing a lot of it's still not enough, the margin isn't there, I need more, and we get it. But a buck is a buck. In January, the same contract was trading nearly a dollar lower. So you decide, do you prefer to make sales at sub six dollar futures or near the highest levels the September contract has seen since October 2024? Markets don't need to be perfect to reward it, just needs to be better than it was. And right now, that certainly is the case with wheat. So if you need to make some new crop sales, don't be afraid to do so. On the canola support uh side, uh support did hold this week, and that matters. Um, this week contracts across the board trended higher, and that's constructive. But like soybeans, canola is starting to settle into somewhat of a range-bound trade here, um, with the top end being tested here as we finish the week. So, can it break out? Sure, but there's also a catch. Oil seeds are still really trading crude oil. So that means volatility can show up fast in both directions. So if you are contemplating sales, do it. Last year the rally in canola stalled in June, and right now we're sitting only about$20 on the futures board off highs from last year. So again, we're not chasing here, it's an opportunity. So we do recommend getting started with sales for 2026. So as you can see for the week, we do have opportunities showing up. We just again just don't need to wait until it's necessarily all perfect. Act when the market is giving you some opportunity. So, again, if you have questions or want to walk through it for your operation, feel free to give us a call. Otherwise, we'll talk to you again next week.