Weekly Bushel Cast: 5/1

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, May 1, 2026

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you this week's Manage Bushels update for Friday, May 1st. And we certainly had a lot of movement here this week, so a lot to cover. And hopefully, you all got caught up on sales here to finish the week. Starting with July corn, we did finish the week at 480 and a quarter. And we saw this contract push to some fresh five-week highs here finishing the week, putting that early March high of 487 within shooting distance. So that's gonna be the trade's target. And if you're still holding bushels, this is gonna be your window here to reward the market. A push through 487 certainly does open the door to $5, but let's be realistic. That likely requires a new story. And right now, the market's really stuck between two forces: strong demand and smooth planting progress. Neither has really fully taken control yet. And until one does, this market could start to stall at these levels. So, bottom line, don't need for perfect. This is a good opportunity to add sales into strength. And the market has given you a move. We just want to make sure we capture it before we see the market move on without us. So again, make some sales there for old crop. On December, we did see the uh trade close at 498 and three-quarters. And we did see new crop uh really delivered this week, trading above the $5 level in Friday's session. So that's real strength, but it's also still acting as a psychological wall because we did close below it here for the week. So there are a lot of bushels sitting right above the market at that level, and producers like to sell round numbers. We get it, it's human nature. So that's why we're kind of seeing that act as strong resistant. But here's the flip side if $5 is closed above, it could trigger some buy stops from shorts sitting below the market. And that's how you get a quick push higher, opening the door to $5,12.5, which is the old contract high. So we're currently at 30% sold and the plan stays the same. If we can close, you know, above that $5 area, we're gonna be adding to sales. And of course, $5,12.5 would be nice, but don't let that become the goal at the expense of execution. Don't miss a good sale trying to squeeze the last penny. The market has certainly given us a move here. We just want to make sure we're rewarding it. So if you haven't, make sure you get some orders working near the $5 area or just make some sales here. On the soybean side, July Futures finished um the week at 12.03 and a quarter. July Beans did spend a lot of the week pressing the top of the range. And again, we're finishing right at the top of it. And that's been the ceiling, and the market knows it. We've been here before. Beans continue to trade in a defined range, and right now we're just testing the upper end again. So the driver remains the same product strength led by oil, with Meal playing a bit more defensive now. It's supportive, but not yet a breakout story. So at $12, this becomes a decision point. If you still have old crop bushels, this is where you reward the market. Range bound markets don't send invitations twice. So until we see a clear shift in demand or a weather scare rallies into resistance, are meant to be sold. Could we break out? Sure. But today we're still stuck in a range. The November contract finished the week at $1,1182 and three quarters. And new crop certainly built some momentum through the month of April. And actually, we've seen the November contract gain 15 and a half cents on the month and pushed to fresh two-year highs here just to finish this week. So that's a meaningful shift in tone. And more importantly, we've cleared 1174 and that matters. That level had been capping rallies, and now that it's been breached, it opens the door technically to the next layers. So first on the docket it is 1183, which is the 2024 high. And again, we closed right below that today. It actually traded through it. So we'd like to see a close above it now. It also opens the door to the $12 area, which is really psychological, and also from 2023 and 1240. That's the old contract high, which is a four-year high going back to 2022. So that's kind of the rodent map here. But remember, markets don't move in straight lines. We're starting to stretch higher. And while product the product stories, especially oil, does continue to support, we still need follow-through. So without it, it can quickly turn back into range trade. So bottom line here, this is where discipline matters. Rallies like this are opportunities, not guarantees. So again, we do recommend being 20 to 30% sold on new crop. On the spring wheat side, July futures finish the week at 7.04. And we've seen this market make a strong run this week. And the message is simple: this is your opportunity. July futures are holding above $7 to finish the week, putting profitable prices back on the table here for oil crop. So if you still have some old crop wheat, what are you waiting for? This market has given you a rally. We just want to make sure you're using it. And remember, as a producer, you're always long. The risk is already on your balance sheet. So marketing is about managing the risk, not hoping for more. And that's not lose sight of timing here. This is the time of year where for focus does start to turn towards new crop. So take advantage of the rally. Don't let the market pass you by. And also, um, September spring we finished the week at 7.21 and three quarters. And we saw this contract gain 34 and a half cents during the month of April. That's a strong, meaningful run. And the market has quietly done have done a lot of work to get here. So take a step back. A couple months ago, this price level would have felt like a gift, and now it's reality. And that shift of mindset is where marketing decisions get made or missed. So this is a market that has added risk premium and momentum, but it's still a wheat market. Volatility cuts both ways, and rallies like this are meant to be used. So reward the move, stay disciplined, don't let familiarity with higher prices turn into hesitation. You don't need the top, you just need some progress. And on the canola side, we actually saw canola push to some new contract highs this week. But to finish things out, consolidation did start to take hold. And that's not necessarily bearish. Um, it's really just the market catching its breath. And you could say the same thing really happened in weed exchanges here to finish the week, too. But don't overthink it. If you have canola going in the ground, this rally is an opportunity. The market has already done the heavy lifting. Now it's your turn to respond. So we'd be comfortable being 30 to 40% sold on expected uh production. And if you do have harvest delivery needs more than that, don't be afraid to do more. So we've been giving a good rally across the board this week. We just want to make sure we're making sales as well. So if you have questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you again next week.