Weekly Bushel Cast: 5/8

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, May 8, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Friday, May 8th, and this is Sam with this week's Managed Bushels update. July 26 futures closed in our caution zone at 471 and a quarter. July corners run into technical resistance after failing to sustain momentum above the recent 487 double top area. The rejection triggered a round of long liquidation with price now working back through key retracement support levels. The market is essentially transitioning from a momentum-driven rally to a consolidation phase. If current support zones fail to hold, a move back toward the April lows near 450 becomes increasingly likely. The broader backdrop remains headline heavy. Next week brings a USDA data release, potential clarity on the E15 policy and the US-China trade meeting. This combination is likely to define near-term direction and volatility. Bottom line, corn installed at resistance and is now in a decision zone. Whether this becomes a deeper correction or a renewed leg hire will depend on upcoming macro and policy catalysts. Need to make a sale, make the sale and re own. Already sold. Stay long using July 460 calls, which are trading at about 11 cents, expiring at the end of June. New crop corn closed in our watch zone at 493 and a half. New crop corn futures pushed to 506 earlier in the week before reversing unimproved global sentiment and the absence of immediate production risk as planting progresses. Like old crop, December corn has shifted into a consolidation phase after testing highs. That 506 area now stands as near-term resistance with downside risk opening toward the 470 region if support breaks. At this stage, the market remains fundamentally comfortable and weather has yet to introduce a sustained risk premium. Bottom line, without a production scare or fresh demand shock, the recent high may represent an interim peak in the range. Some strategy ideas we recommend being 30% sold. We are targeting $5 plus futures for additional sales. Waiting for sales, a $4.80 July short data put costs around 11 cents. Moving on to soybeans, July 2026 futures closed at 1208 in our sell zone to end the week. Soybeans remain structurally range bound despite recent attempts to break higher. The move earlier in the week pushed into the top of the established range but failed to generate follow-through buying, resulting in a classic false breakout. Price action continues to be driven more by positioning and headlines and fundamentals. With the upcoming US-China meeting, volatility risk is elevated, but direction remains unclear. Support is seen near the 1160 area while resistance remains firm just above $12. Bottom line, soybeans remain range bound and until a new demand or supply catalyst emerges, trades are likely to remain contained between established levels. Strategy idea on old crop soybeans need to make a sale, make the sale. New crop November 26 futures closed at $11.89 and a half in our watch zone. New crop beans briefly challenge the psychological $12 level before reversing, reinforcing it as resistance for now. The breakout above $11.74 earlier in the move remains constructive and defines the lower boundary of the current range. Prices now likely to oscillate between $11.74 and $12 until a new catalyst emerges. Strong customer margins continue to provide underlying support, but planted acreage and lack of weather stress limit upside momentum in the short term. Bottom line, soybeans are balanced between strong demand support and limited weather premium. A breakout likely requires a new fundamental catalyst from trade or production risk. Want to make a sale? We recommend being 20 to 30% sold on new crop beans. Get caught up if you haven't. Waiting for sales, a July short-dated 1150 put is trading around 13 cents, with a July short-dated 1160 put trading around 16 cents, both expiring June 26th. Now moving on to spring wheat, July 26 futures closed in our watch zone at 678.5. Wheat has corrected sharply as speculative long liquidation followed recent highs. Despite the pullback, weather stress remains present across portions of the hard red winter wheat belt, with a large share of winter wheat acres still rated under drought conditions. Attention now shifts to the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour, which will provide the first meaningful yield validation. Results will be key in determining whether weather risk re-enters the market or if fundamentals remain adequately supplied. Domestic basis levels continue to reflect a relatively comfortable balance sheet, limiting immediate upside pressure. Bottom line, the pullback appears corrective unless confirmed by worsening yield data next week. Volatility risk is increasing. Make the sale on any old crop wheat already sold, examine buying futures near support levels. If that isn't comfortable for you, look at using Chicago wheat or corn options as a cross hedge. New crop wheat closed at 699 and a half in our sale zone after gaining roughly 34 cents in the month of April. September wheat has retraced most of that move, giving back 22 cents in a single week. The 690 area remains an important reference point, having acted as resistance in prior cycles. Most recently, the high for the move in June of 2025. This reinforces the idea that rallies into this zone have historically attracted strong selling interest. While the broader uptrend is not necessarily broken, wheat remains highly sensitive to speculative positioning and weather shifts. Bottom line, wheat continues to trade with sharp two-way volatility. Sell discipline remains critical in this environment. Need to make a sale, we recommend being 30% sold on new crop wheat. Now on to canola. Canola has pulled back from the recent highs near 764 and is now consolidating around the 740 level. This appears to be normal corrective phase following a strong rally rather than a structural trend change. Underlying support remains tied to strong crushed margins and steady domestic demand. However, energy markets haven't introduced volatility after easing crude oil prices on geopolitical optimism, which has reduced oil seed momentum. A larger acreage outlook and generally adequate supply expectations may cap upside unless weather becomes a more dominant factor later in the season. Bottom line, the market has already delivered a profitable rally. Current levels still offer reasonable opportunities to reward the market and maintain disciplined sales. We recommend being at least 30% sold. Next week is shaping up as a potential volatility catalyst for green markets with multiple high impact events. USDA WASDI update, E15 policy decision, Kansas Wheat Crop Tour, and US China trade meeting. After several weeks of rains brown trade, markets are approaching a key inflection point where policy, weather validation, and global demand signals may finally force a directional breakout. Until then, discipline in scaling sales and managing risk remains the central strategy. That's from all of us at the Money Farm team. We hope everyone has a great weekend and we'll talk to you next week.