Weekly Bushel Cast: 5/15

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, May 15, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Friday, May 15th, and this is Sam with this week's Managed Bushels update. July 26th, corn futures closed at 455 and three-quarter in our no action zone. Corn features have shifted from a momentum rally into a weather and headline driven market. Disappointing China trade developments triggered heavy long liquidation this week, while improving short-term rain forecasts across portions of the Western Corn Belt added additional pressure. Still, underneath the break, the broader demand story remains supportive. Export demand continues outperforming USDA projections, ethanol production remains strong, and year-round E-15 legislation is still working through Washington. At the same time, USDA balance sheets continue reminding traders that global corn stocks are not burdensome if weather becomes an issue later this summer. Technically, last week's lows near 483 became important support, and that level failed during the sell-off. Bulls now need to defend the 455 area to avoid opening the door toward a deeper correction, which they did. Bottom line, the market still needs a crop. Weather premium has not disappeared. It simply pulled back after an overextended rally and disappointing China headlines. Strategy ideas need to make a sale, make the sale and re-own. Already sold, stay long using July 454.55 calls, which are about 15 cents, and expire June 26. New crop December 26 corn futures closed in our watch shown at 481. New crop corn briefly pushed above $5 following USDA's supportive global stocks outlook before profit taking erased momentum late in the week. The USDA used trendline yields and normal weather assumptions, yet world-ending stocks still projected near the tightest levels since 2013-14. That matters because the market understands there is very little room for a major weather problem later in the growing season. Fast planting progress and mostly favorable early conditions are keeping traders comfortable for now, but drought concerns across portions of the Western Corn Belt and Northern Plains continue lingering underneath the surface. The trade also continues watching potential Chinese feed grain demand ahead of additional trade discussions. Whether purchases purchases materialize remains uncertain, but the headlines alone have kept the downside pressure limited. Bottom line, corn remains in a major decision zone. If weather becomes threatening deeper into June, this market still has room to move significantly higher. Want to make a sale? We recommend being 30% sold. We are targeting $5 plus futures for additional sales. This week was a great reminder to get caught up on sales. Waiting for the sale still, a 480 July short data put cost about 11 cents, expiring end of June. On the soybeans, July 26th, soybean futures closed in our watch zone at 11.77. Soybeans experienced aggressive lung liquidation this week after traders failed to receive the major China purchase announcements. Many had spent months anticipating. The disappointment hit hard because soybeans had become the market most dependent on fresh export optimism from US-China talks. Even so, the underlying soybean story remains far more product driven than export-driven right now. The USDA sharply increased soybean oil demand tied to biofuels while crush demand continues expanding. Bean oil is increasingly trading like an energy market rather than a simple byproduct market. And as long as crude oil and renewable diesel margins stay supportive, soybean oil continues to pull the complex higher. Export sales remain disappointing, and U.S. soybeans are becoming less competitive globally after the rally, still tighter than expected USDA balance sheets, and strong crush margins continue offering support underneath the market. Bottom line, soybeans remain volatile, but the demand story tied to products and biofuels has not disappeared. Need to make a sale? Make the sale. New crop November 26 futures closed in our watch zone at $11.70 in three quarter. New crop soybeans briefly traded to fresh three-year highs before reversing sharply lower as overbought technical conditions collided with disappointing China headlines. Despite the setback, the broader uptrend remains intact for now. The USDA validated the bullish product story again this week by tightening new crop ending stocks through stronger crush demand assumptions. Larger South American production continues limiting runaway upside potential, but stocks are still not building aggressively despite record crops globally. Technically, the breakout area in year 1174 becomes a major support moving forward. If that zone fails, the market could quickly transition into a broader consolidation phase. If support holds and weather concerns intensify later this summer, the market still has room to retest recent highs. Bottom line, soybeans are balancing strong product demand against uncertain expert demand and improving planting conditions. Want to make a sale? We recommend being 20 to 30% sold, get caught up. Waiting for sales at July shortdated 1160 put is around 15 cents, also expiring the end of June. Now moving on to spring wheat, July 2026, futures closed at 685 and a quarter in our watch zone. Wheat remains one of the stronger fundamental stories in the grain space even after this week's sharp corrective break. The USDA confirmed exactly what traders feared. The hard red winter wheat crop has real problems. The government now projects the smallest U.S. winter wheat crop since 1965, while Canada's wheat tour results continue confirming sharply lower yield potential. Globally, wheat production concerns are also growing across several key exporters, including the EU, Australia, and Argentina. That continues tightening the world wheat balance sheet underneath the surface. Even so, wheat struggle to maintain momentum late this week as broader commodity liquidation and disappointing China headlines pulled prices lower. Demand destruction concerns are also starting to emerge after the recent rally, particularly as global buyers search for cheaper alternatives. Bottom line, wheat fundamentals remain supportive, but volatility has increased dramatically as traders balance tightening supplies against weakening demand psychology. Need to make a sale, make the sale. Already sold examining buying futures near support levels. If that isn't comfortable for you, look at using Chicago wheat or corn options as a cross hedge. New crop, September 26th futures closed at 705 and 34 in our cell zone. September wheat continues trading with violent two-way volatility as weather, global supply concerns, and speculative positioning battle for control. The market remains heavily focused on planes weather forecasts and final hard red winter wheat production estimates before heading into harvest. The broader story remains supportive. USDA lowered production estimates across several major exporters while global stocks continue tightening. However, wheat also became technically overextended following the recent rally, leaving the market vulnerable to aggressive profit taking once momentum faded. The 690, the $7 zone, remains a major long-term resistance area that has historically attracted heavy producer selling. Until the market receives another major bullish weather catalyst, rallies into this region may continue struggling to hold. Bottom line, wheat still carries one of the strongest supply stories in agriculture, but traders should expect continued sharp volatility. Need to make a sale, we recommend it being 30% sold. Canola has entered a consolidation phase after the sharp rally earlier this spring. Pressure from weaker soybean futures and broader commodity liquidation weighed on prices this week. Although the longer-term demand story remains relatively supportive, strength and global vegetable oil demand and biofuels markets continue offering underlying support, but improved global supply expectations of volatility and crude oil have reduced upside momentum near term. At current levels, the market still offers historically profitable pricing opportunities despite the recent correction. Bottom line, canola remains supported longer term, but traders should expect continued volatility tied to energy and global oil seed markets. We also recommend being at least 30% sold on canola. Next week's market focus will remain centered on US-China trade developments, planes, and corn belt weather forecasts, expanding general concerns, export competitiveness, fund positioning of volatility. The market still carries weather premium, but recent price action was a reminder that headline driven rallies can reverse quickly when expectations get ahead of reality. Profitable opportunities are still on the table. Reward the market, defend margins, and avoid letting emotion override discipline in a volatile, volatility driven market. That's from all of us at the Money Farm team. We hope everyone has a great weekend, and we will talk to you next week.