Weekly Bushel Cast: 6/12

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, June 12, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison Genial Manage Bushels weekly update on Friday, June 12th. In July, corn futures finish the week at 412 and three quarters. The biggest risk in old crop corn right now is the 380 area. That level comes from the monthly continuation chart and the long-term trend line. It is a risk, not a promise. We hope corn does not go there, but it is a level we have to respect. July corn did make a new low on the overnight going into Friday at 408. So that puts 308 roughly 28 cents below the market. So for now, we're not interested in protecting that risk at current levels. Why? Because the market finally did get a little bit of a bounce here. After the recent washout, chasing protection after a break is not our first choice. So if you are already protected, just stay disciplined. And in fact, at this point, we're actually more interested in buying calls than buying puts. That does not mean the downside risk is gone. It just means most of the damage has already been done, and we would rather position for a recovery than pay for protection after a washout. So if you're looking to reown, we would stay long using a September 440 call. They were about 12 cents, they'll expire August 21st. December corn futures finished the week at 440 and a quarter. A new crop has gone from a 30-month high at 506 to a new contract low at 435, the lowest price we've seen in nearly two years. So don't forget, your crop insurance spring price was at 462. So in many ways, that is already your put or protection on the downside. Producers are also still long those on-price bushels. So at this point, the next downside risk is a drop toward that recent July corn low of 408. That's roughly 27 cents below the market. Is that worth protecting today? In our opinion, probably not aggressively. So like old crop corn, we would rather start looking at upside potential. However, getting long new crop can easily turn into a Texas hedge quickly. So we will call it protecting the put or protecting your insurance floor if you prefer to get long new crop. So the next major risk, the possible turning point is again going to be that June 30th USDA acreage report. So if you're looking for protection, you certainly can. A September short dated 410 put that gets you right near that support level is about five cents. They expire um August 21st. But again, if you want to reown or protect insurance prices, a September short dated 450 call is about 16 cents, again, expiring August 21st. On the soybean side, July soybeans finish the week at 11.13 and a half. And it does appear that this contract is starting to build a floor. The 1110 area has acted like a solid support here so far. If that level breaks, the next risk is the $11 handle. So the same can be said for both August and September contracts as well. So for now, the market is trying to stabilize, but the bulls still need to prove that they can defend support and build momentum off this floor. That said, like everything else, much of the pullback has already happened. July soybeans have fallen, roughly 80 cents from the recent highs. And while downside risk does still exist, we believe the upside opportunity now outweighs the downside risk. Doesn't guarantee a rally, but risk reward are becoming more balanced here after the sell-off. So if you've already sold, stay long. September 1180 calls are about 15 cents today. They expire the 21st of August. November futures did finish the week at 11.32, and it seems like they've set down their Hercules level at 11.30. So that 1130 area has been the middle of the entire year's trading range. And for the sixth straight session, um, that area has held. So thankfully for the bulls, new crop soybeans have refused to break, even while the rest of the grain markets have been under pretty severe pressure. So, like corn, don't forget new crop insurance price. For soybeans, that price is $11.09. That is your put. At this support level, the downside risk to that insurance price is roughly 26 cents. And then is this worth protecting? In our opinion, we would rather let insurance work for you on those on-price bushels than spend money protecting against 26 cents of risk after the market has already pulled back. So now the question becomes: can November soybeans help hold the rest of the grain markets together here over the next month? We are not ready really to declare victory here, but this is exactly where the bulls needed the market to show some backbone. As long as 1130 area holds, the chart gives producers a reason to stay patient and look for some upside opportunities rather than chasing protection after already getting a pullback. So if you are looking though for protection, want to stay covered here. A September short dated $11 put is $18. Otherwise, if you're looking at reowning or protecting the insurance price, a September short-dated $11.90 call is about $16. Both of those do expire on the 21st of August. Now, Spring Wheat, July futures did finish the week at 618 and a quarter. In July, Springwheat did post a new low this week of 613. So far, that low has held. Is this bottoming action? Well, kind of like corn and soybeans, it could be. At the very least, the market appears to be taking a breather from the relentless selling pressure. So for the past seven sessions, prices have started to stabilize rather than continue making fresh lows. That does not mean the trend has turned higher, but it does suggest the market is trying to find value. So the first goal for the bulls is simple reclaim that 460 level. A move through that level would improve the charts and provide some stronger technical support. Until then, we call this a pause with the market trying to determine whether the recent lows are exhaustion selling or simply a stop along the way. So if you're already sold, we do like staying long. You can use futures or call options. This week we were using Chicago wheat options. A September Chicago 640 call is about 16 cents. They expired the 21st of August. On to the September contract, we have quite a bit of carry there. That one actually finished the week at 642. So new crop spring wheat does continue to hold the 200-day moving average near 641. And that is a key long-term support level. And so far the market has refused to break it despite the weakness across the grain complex. So while corn and soybeans have pushed to some new lows here this week, wheat has shown some relative strength by defending one of the most important technical levels on the chart. So the bulls need to keep it that way. Um it's also worth noting that 641 remains above the current crop insurance base price of 619. So in other words, the market is still trading above that revenue floor our producers established this spring. So as long as the market remains above the 200-day moving average, the longer-term trend does remain intact. So a break below 641 would likely attract additional selling pressure, but for now, that level continues to serve as a line in the sand and an important indicator of whether buyers are still willing to defend new crop wheat values. So again, we do recommend being 30% sold here. And of course, with the carry in the market, you can certainly go out if you need to get caught up. On to canola. And honestly, in all reality, canola has held together better than most almost any other major commodity during the recent sell-off. While corn, soybeans, wheat have all pushed to some decent lows here, canola has largely absorbed the pressure and continues to trade near historically strong price levels. So that's adjust the recent setback, may have been more of a correction within a bull market rather than the start of a major trend change. Bull markets, though, need to make some new highs. And the key now is whether canola can do it again. So far, that has not happened here for about a week. That is not a major concern yet, but bull markets need to keep proving themselves. So consolidation after a strong rally is healthy. Failure to make new highs here over time does become a warning sign. But for now, the charts still favor the bulls, but the next move higher needs to come sooner rather than later to at least maintain confidence in that long-term upward trend is going to be remaining intact. So across green markets this week, the story is becoming very similar. Corn, soybean, and spring wheat have all experienced meaningful corrections and are attempting to stabilize. Could prices go lower? Absolutely. But after the washout we've seen, producers are already long on price bushels and protected by crop insurance floors. So at this point, we are spending more time looking at upside opportunities than downside fears. The next major test does come with that June 30th acreage report. Until then, the market's job is simple. Prove the lows are in. So if you have any questions, of course, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you again next week.