Weekly Bushel Cast: 6/18

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Thursday, June 18, 2026 

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Friday, June 18th, and this is Sam with this week's Managed Bushels update. December 26th corn futures closed at 444. December corn fell from 506 to 434, a decline of 70 plus cents. Since then, the recovery has been modest at best. In fact, December corn hasn't even been able to reach 451, which represents just a 25% retracement of the sell-off. A move back to 470 would only recover half of what we was lost. When you look at it that way, the bulls still have plenty of work to do. That doesn't mean the market can't recover. Weather forecasts can change quickly, and the June 30th Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports have a history of creating volatility. However, the charts still need to prove buyers are willing to step in with conviction. In our opinion, courage call strategies deserve consideration. Calls allow you to participate if weather acreage surprises or a shift in fund money sparks a larger rally while keeping risk defined to the premium paid. The thought is that getting calls in place now will give you a courage to make sales when a retracement occurs, hence the name. We don't know if the low is in, but we do know the major market turns often begin when sentiment is at its worst. For now, December corn appears to be stabilizing, but a recovery and a trend change are two different things. Strategy ideas looking for protection. A September short-dated 430 put is about 12 cents, expiring August 21st. Want courage calls, a September short-dated 470 call is 12 cents, also expiring August 21st. November new crop 26 soybean futures closed at 11.42 and three quarter. November soybeans finally found a reason to rally this week after falling more than 92 cents from 1214 to 1121. The market recovered back near 11.57. That sounds impressive until you realize it only recovered about 38% of the break. The spark was expert demand. USDA confirmed 372,000 metric tons of soybean to unknown destinations earlier this week, followed by another 132,000 tons sold to China and 120,000 tons sold to unknown destinations this morning. That gave the market the demand story it has been waiting for. However, soybeans traded lower into the weekend, giving the move a little bit of a buy the rumor, sell the fact feel. After rallying nearly 35 cents in a week, some profit taking should not be surprising. The bigger question is whether more demand follows. One flash sale gets attention. Continued sales keep buyers interested. Funds are still estimated long, roughly 90,000 soybean contracts, meaning the next round of demand news will matter. Looking for protection, a September short-dated $11 put is about 16 cents. Want courage calls. A September short-dated $12 call is 17 cents. New crop September wheat futures closed at 647 in three-quarter. We are shifting our focus to September spring wheat. July is quickly becoming a delivery contract, and with considerable carry to September, the deferred contract gives us a better look at where the market is valuing. Wheat beyond the old crop delivery window. The carry is telling us something. The market does not need wheat immediately. That is not bullish and proves the market's concern is shifting to new crop. One reason is that the production story remains unknown. Winter wheat production is one thing, but spring wheat is another. If acreage comes in below expectations on June 30th, weather risk suddenly becomes much more important. Demand has also provided some support this week. While wheat is not leading the grain complex, milling wheat demand stories have helped keep buyers engaged after the recent washout. Canola was the outlier this week. While corn, soybeans, and wheat all attempted to stabilize, canola continued moving lower. The biggest reason is weather. Improved precipitation chances and more favorable temperatures across Canada continue pulling weather premium out of the market. Technically, November canola is now testing major support near the 100-day moving average around 730. If that level fails, a retest of the $700 area becomes a realistic downside target. On the flip side, the market needs to reclaim the upper 700s before we can argue momentum has shifted back to the bulls. This week, canola turned from the strongest to the weakest chart of the grains. We recommend being at least 30% sold. Get caught up. Markets are trying to stabilize, but stabilize does not mean fixed. The recent bounce is encouraging, but most contracts have only recovered a small piece of what was lost. The next test is whether buyers can defend these lows until month end, quarter end, and the June 30th reports. Until then, we stay disciplined. That's from all of us at the Money Farm team. We hope everyone has a great weekend, and we will talk to you next week.