Weekly Bushel Cast: 6/26

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, June 26, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you this week's Managed Bushels update on Friday, June 26th. And December corn finished the week at 441 and a half. And corn futures are at least trying to build a base ahead of next week's USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Report. The trend is still lower, but after this month's washout, the market is at least trying to stabilize. Report expectations lean a little bearish on paper. The average trade gas has corn acres at 9499 million, slightly below the March estimate of 95.34 million acres. But we would not be surprised to see acres actually come in higher than expected. We did not have a large planting weather issue this spring. And after last year's strong production, it's really hard to assume the USD needs to take a big swing lower on acres unless there was prevent plant. And we don't necessarily see that being the case here this year. Corley stocks could also come in heavier. The average estimate is about 5.4 billion bushels, well above last year's 4.6. So a larger crop last year combined with steady but not really explosive demand does leave room for the USDA to find more corn. But together, this does not mean that the market cannot rally. It just means the USDA needs to give the funds a reason to cover shorts. A lower acreage number would do that, a friendly stocks number would help. But if acres are higher and stocks are heavier, the market may have a harder time holding this recovery. So how much can corn recover if the USDA gives the market a reason to rally? Well, after a 75 cent break, recovering half of that move is not unreasonable to target if the reports do lending friendly enough to force the funds to cover some of their roughly 50,000 contract short position. So the first technical targets come in at 450, 460, and 470, which represent the 25, 38, and 50% retracements. Those are potential targets, not predictions. The market still needs a reason to get there. From a support standpoint, December Corn has spent this week teetering near that 440 area. So this is an important level to hold following next week's report. If futures can defend 440, it does keep the door open for a recovery. If that level fails, the market may quickly shift back to finding new lows. So right now, the market needs a bullish uh surprise from the USDA, and just as importantly, it needs the funds to decide if it's time to cover some shorts instead of adding to them. So some strategies here. If you're looking for protection, keep it short and sweet. We were looking at September short-dated 430 puts. They're about 11 cents here to finish the week. And if you do want some courage calls, play the upside here a little bit. Also, not only for the report, but also going into July's weather. September short-dated 470 calls were about 9 cents today. On the soybean side, November future is finished at 11.56 and a quarter. And while corn acreage has received most of the attention, the soybean numbers could prove just as important. The average trade estimate looks for 85.3 million planted acres, which is up from the USDA's March estimate of 84.7. On like corn, we are a bit less convinced that soybean acres come in above expectations. While some corn acres likely shifted to beans, several specialty crops also offered some attractive returns here this spring, and that likely competed a bit for acres. So if corn acreage does surprise to the upside, it becomes even harder to justify a large increase in soybean acres. And at this point, a number close to trade expectations feels like a more likely outcome. Quarterly uh soybean stocks are expected near one uh billion bushels, only slightly above last year. So that estimate also feels reasonable. We've had some strong domestic crush helping offset some disappointing export demand. So that leaves the balance sheet at least relatively stable going into the report. Unless the USD on covers the surprise and demand, acreage will likely be the bigger market mover on Tuesday. That doesn't mean soybeans cannot rally. The USDA has a history of surprising the market and a smaller than expected acreage number would likely force the funds to cover some shorts. On the flip side, if acres come in above expectations, it would reinforce the current kind of bearish tone we're seeing here. From a technical standpoint, November soybeans do continue to hold support near 1130. Um, that area has been tested several times here over the past two weeks. So it'll be important to uh defend here in next week's or following next week's reports. If support gives way, the market could quickly test the 200A, which comes in near 1117. On the upside, the first objective is simply recovering a portion of the recent 92 cent sell-off. So key resistance is going to be at 1156, 1167, and 1179. Those represent the 25, 38, and 50% retracements. So those are realistic technical objectives if the USDA gives the market a reason to rally and funds begin to cover shorts. Our strategy remains unchanged. We're not interested in making emotional sales here after a sharp break. Instead, we will continue looking for opportunities to reward rallies if the USD provides one next week. So with volatility likely to increase around Tuesday's reports, expect the acreage number to be the biggest driver here for prices. So strategies, if you're looking for some protection, at least to get through the report. September short-dated 11.20 puts are about 16 cents. You could also look at calls just like corn. September short-dated $12 call is 17 cents. Again, gets you through not just this report, but also weather. Spring wheat, the September 26th contract closed at 6.05 and a quarter today. And we will certainly have an eye on next Tuesday's USD reports, but it will also likely continue following a direction in corn. If corn can find a bullish surprise and force the funds to cover shorts, wheat should benefit. If not, wheat may struggle to really generate enough buying interest on its own. But the average trade estimate calls for 43.8 million total wheat acres, very close to the USD's March estimate. The bigger question is spring wheat. Analysts are actually looking for 9.5 million acres, about 80,000 acres above the USD's March estimate of 9.42 million. Our thoughts are a bit mixed here. We did hear a few clients who did add spring wheat acres after prices rallied this spring. However, most producers we spoke with had already planned to reduce spring wheat acres before planting began. So the spring rally did help save some acres, but we're really not convinced it added up enough to justify an 80,000 acre increase. Could the USDA get there? Absolutely, but we also wouldn't be surprised with spring wheat acres coming closer to March intentions or even lower. Quarterly wheat stocks are expected to be near 934 million bushels up from 855 a year ago. The stocks number is likely unlikely to be a major surprise unless the USD finds some unexpected demand. In our opinion, export demand has been stronger than expected, and that could definitely be a surprise for the report. From a technical standpoint, September Minneapolis wheat does continue to trend lower. The $6 level appears to be on the traders' radar and will likely be the target for the bears going into next week's report, especially after fresh lows were printed here to finish the week. So for now, we continue viewing wheat as a follower, necessarily than the leader, although it did lead to the downside pretty hard this week. Winter wheat harvest is the pressure point still present here, but much of that story has already been priced in. So next week's USA reports, particularly corn numbers two, will likely determine whether we can finally build on its recent recovery. On the canola side, canola producers should also keep an eye on Tuesday's acreage report. While canola doesn't receive nearly the attention of corn, soybeans, wheat, the industry does expect U.S. planted acres to set another record in 2026. And much of that growth is coming from North Dakota. Producers there are expected to seed roughly 2.3 to 2.4 million acres. So that alone would put the US on pace to exceed the previous national record of 2.7 million. So at the same time, we're also looking at winter canola and they're actually seeing expansion across the southeastern U.S. as well. So while demand is expected to keep pace with this expansion, large production estimates could continue to weigh on the market, particularly if soybeans see the same results. Technically, November canola features have found support near the 100-day moving average, 733. If that fails, the 700 level does likely become a target. On the other side, a bullish surprise would certainly propel the market back to the 760 area. So going into this report, we do recommend, especially given how historically high prices still are, make sure you're getting caught up to 30% sold. So as always, our job here isn't to predict every USD number, it's just to prepare you for your opportunities they create. So we'll be watching Tuesday's reports very closely and we'll be ready to adjust our recommendations as the markets give us some new information. So if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you again next week.