Weekly Bushel Cast: 7/2

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Thursday, July 2, 2026 

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you this week's Manage Bushels update on Thursday, July 2nd. And with the 4th of July holiday weekend, markets are going to be closed tomorrow, which is Friday, July 3rd. So markets are now closed after today's day session until Sunday night with normal trading hours going into next week. So if you have questions, feel free to give us a call on Monday. We'll definitely be able to help you when markets are open. Otherwise, we hope you have a great, happy, and safe 4th of July. So getting into greens, we saw December corn close the week at 441 and a half. Can we get back 40 cents at the 81 cent drop on that we've seen here? And if we could get that, it would put December corn back around 465 and three-quarters. But what's interesting about that number is that on January 12th, just before the first USD report of 2026, December corn was trading at 466. And back then that report felt disappointing. And the market actually dropped from 466 to 445. And now, almost six months later, the trade is backfighting over the exact same price area. So if you were in a coma since January, you'd wake up thinking you really haven't missed much. But our average sales price so far for 2026 production on 30% is around 481. So where do we go from here? We're obviously looking for Mother Nature. Can she give the market a story? We know the funds were heavily short, just like they were after that January USD report. They were wrong then, and let's hope history repeats itself here. And since the USD report, which was just two days ago, we were able to bounce about 20 cents. So we don't know what the market will do. Nobody does, but 20 cents is 20 cents. If the market gets back to 450, we will examine adding some price protection. But for now, the turn is really good to see. So if you do want to add some protection, given the little bit of bounce we we had here, a September short dated 430 puts about 11 cents. If you want to get some courage calls in, I have had quite a few calls here this week asking if the opportunity was missed, and it's not. If we continue to see some upward movement here, we get through 465. Um the market could have some good momentum behind it. So we were looking at a September short-dated 450 call is about 13 cents, and that would go off the board on the 21st of August. On the soybean side, November futures finished the week at 11.47 and three quarters. And any cash sale, honestly, at this point above 11.30 puts you in the upper end prices we've been able to capture for our sales so far for 2026. Our average sales price on 30% of production is $11.34. One positive though, given where we are, we did push, uh we pushed down to roughly $11.25 ahead of the US report, and we've managed to stay above that level during this recovery. So that's the really good news is we've been able to stay back above what our average price is. So technically, soybeans are in what we would call a moving average sandwich. The 200-day moving average sits at 1118, just above the June low, and has continued to hold. The 100-day comes in around 1152, while the 50 day is near 1166, almost exactly where the 50% recovery of that 92 cent break would take us. And this is why technicals matter. The funds and algorithms that they use watch these levels very closely. And that's one reason the funds have remained net long soybeans. It's because the market never broke below the 200-day moving average like it did in wheat and corn. So now we need a reason to keep buying. And that likely comes down to China or Mother Nature. And until one of them gives the market a story, the recovery here may remains encouraging, but it's also fragile. So if you want some price protection, at least going into the end of August, a September short-dated 1120 puts about 13 cents. That at least protects you if we do get some new lows. And if you want some courage calls, just like corn, not too late. A September short-dated $12 call is about $12, expires the 21st of August. On the spring wheat side, we did see the September contract close at $6.18 and three quarters today. And just think about this move spring wheat has had. December Minneapolis wheat fell from $7.53 to $5.98 ahead of this week's report. That's a $1.55 break. And markets really move in a straight line forever. And we finally started to see a little recovery. The first target for the bulls is going to be a 25% retracement, which does come in near $4.35. And if the market can work through that level, the next objective is $4.57. So for those who are behind non-sales, I'd use these levels as opportunities to get caught up. Our average sale is still $669 on 30%. So there is still room to improve your position if this recovery continues. Will we get there? We don't know, but hope is in a marketing plan. So if the market gives us a chance to reward the rally, we need to be ready with offers already in place rather than trying to chase it after the fact. On to canola, we do continue to recommend being uh 30% sold for the 2026 crop. Between higher than expected canola acres in Canada and record canola acres in the US, there is plenty of production potential hanging over the market. And technically, November canola futures remains stuck in a trading range with support near 728, resistance near uh uh 751. And right now the chart looks like it's catching its breath after the recent break, but we're watching closely because this market does continue to test the bottom of the range. So if it fails on a closing basis, we'd expect the market to take a run towards 700. On the flip side, if we get a close above 751, uh it would be the first sign that we'd maybe have some uh buyers stepping back into this market. But for now, we're sticking with our 30% sales recommendation. We don't need to get overly aggressive here with the sell-off, but with larger North American acreage than expected, we also don't want to be sitting completely unprotected if the market decides to break lower. So we did see corn soybeans, spring weed, canola. They've all taken plenty of punishment here over the month of June. And now we're watching to see if this recovery finally has some legs. If it does, we just want a plan ready. If it fails, we want protection in place and enough flexibility to adjust. So we don't know what Mother Nature, China, or the funds will do next. That's why we manage sales, manage floors, and stay ready. So, again, for now, enjoy the holiday weekend and we'll see what Sunday night brings in next week's markets. We'll talk to you then.