Bushel Cast: 7/10

Managed Bushels Weekly Update: Friday, July 10, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you this week's Manish Bushels update for Friday, July 10th. And December corn finished the week at 461. And corn was really the clear winner from today's USD report. The USDA cut old crop beginning stocks following stronger than expected feed demand and increased exports. And while production did increase slightly for new crop, just based on revisions from the June 30th report, demand more than offset that additional supply. So 26-27 any stocks dropped to 1.79 billion bushels. That was well below expectations. But from a marketing perspective, this report validates much of the rally we've seen this week. The market was already beginning to price in stronger demand, and the USDA confirmed that demand has been better than many in the trade expected. That said, 1.79 billion bushels is still not a tight balance sheet. It supports higher prices than we saw two weeks ago, but it doesn't justify abandoning discipline. Weather during pollination remains the next major driver, and we still have a large crop to produce. So our recommendation remains unchanged. Continue targeting 470 December futures to get caught up on sales or make additional sales if you need harvest delivery. And if the market can establish itself above that level, we'll definitely reassess our targets. But for now, we're content rewarding this rally rather than waiting for the perfect price. So again, we're 30% sold, average price of 481. Next target is going to be 470. And if you'd like some courage calls in place when we get there, a September short-dated 470 call is only about 12 cents today. On the soybean side, we saw November futures close at 1190 and three quarters. And soybeans came away from the report with relatively few changes. The USD increased production 40 million bushels, following again that June acreage, but also raised exports 30 million bushels on expectations for stronger global demand. So the result was a mostly neutral balance sheet, 26-27 any stocks held steady at 310 million bushels. But one encouraging development came outside of the report today. And while the sale wasn't large enough to really move the balance sheet on its own, it reinforces the trend that we've been watching here. China continues to buy breaks in the market. And that's an encouraging sign. So instead of demand disappearing when prices pull back, buyers have been willing to step in and own the dip. So if that pattern continues throughout the rest of the summer, it should help provide a good floor under this market. So our strategy here remains unchanged. We do recommend using the rally toward 12 to 1214 November futures to get caught up on new crop sales. We've made good progress here off recent lows, but with a large US crop still ahead of us, rewarding rallies remains the right approach. Should weather or demand tighten the balance sheet further, we'll adjust our targets accordingly. So again, right now we're 30% sold with an average price of $11.34. Next target's going to be $12 to $12.14 on November. And if you want a courage call, um, if we get to $12.20 futures, make some new highs, don't be free to get those in place ahead of time. A September short-dated $12.20 call is about 16 cents. On to spring wheat, the September contract finished the week at 6.52 and a half. And we'd actually received another supportive report, but today's rally wasn't necessarily driven by the USDA alone. Buying really accelerated on the open today. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified overnight. Reports surfaced that Ukraine actually struck several Russian tankers, raising concerns about some potential shipping disruptions in the region going into the weekend. So while it's too early to know whether exports will ultimately be affected, the headlines were enough to inject another round of risk premium into the wheat market. From the USDA, the story also became a little friendlier. U.S. wheat production fell to the smallest crop we've seen since 1970, 71, while ending stocks were reduced to 722 million bushels. That's down 22% from last year. Globally, ending stocks also declined. We saw reductions in Canada, more than offset some larger production estimates in Russia and Ukraine. And we've been saying this for weeks. Bullish headlines don't automatically translate into higher prices. But today's report reinforces that the balance sheet does continue moving in the right direction. But demand still needs to follow through. So if export business improves here, particularly with the softer US dollar, renewed uncertainty in the Black Sea, Wheat has room to continue working higher. From a marketing standpoint, nothing really changed our perspective today. This week's rally has provided a welcome opportunity to improve some cash flow and got get caught up on sales. So we continue targeting 670 September Minneapolis week futures for additional sales. If the market can establish itself above that, we'll reassess our objectives. But for now, we want to continue rewarding rallies rather than waiting. So 30% sold average price so far is $669. Our next target is just above that at $670. So feel free to get some orders in place here going into the weekend. On the canola side, canola didn't really receive many headlines from today's USD report, but the underlying oil seed outlook remains constructive. USDA raised global oil seed production slightly, but demand also continued to improve. Global oil seed trade and crush both increased while projected ending stocks actually slipped. Global vegetable oil consumption also continues to outpace production growth, pushing ending stocks slightly higher, but honestly keeping supplies historically manageable. And that's important because canola doesn't trade in a vacuum. It competes within the global vegetable oil market alongside soybean oil, palm oil, sunflower oil. So as long as demand for vegetable oils remains strong, it should continue providing some good underlying support for canola. Technically, nothing changes here. November canola continues to trend higher, and we remain patient on adding some additional sales. However, if you are behind or need to secure some more uh price for harvest delivery, the rally this week is definitely worth rewarding. So this week was really a great reminder that markets can definitely move quickly. A week ago, producers were wondering if the lows were gonna be in or if we were gonna even go lower. Today we're talking about rewarding rally. So have your targets in place before the market gets there, not after. Of course, we'll continue watching the fundamentals and keep you um one step ahead as we move forward into next week. Hopefully, some of our targets are gonna be hit and we'll be contacting you with some sales recommendations. Otherwise, hope you have a great weekend. Stay cool, and we'll talk to you again next week.